What is the Brazilian Proposal?

Concept

The so-called Brazilian proposal was introduced during the negotiations under the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) that led to the Kyoyo Protocol. The essential concept differs from the target-setting approach adopted (for the first commitment period) under the Kyoto Protocol, i.e. uniform reductions, subject to differentiation for special circumstances and with the European Union subject to a single collective target (thus allowing for differentiation within the EU). The Brazilian Proposal defines targets for nations, set on the basis of the relative degree of responsibility for the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

Although, as tabled, the proposal referred only to developed nations, it provides a principle that can be applied to all nations, while still being consistent with the "historical responsibilty of developed nations" as adopted in the FCCC.

Science issues

Two classes of issue have been raised in scientific studies of the proposal. The first is whether the uncertainties in emissions data and climate system response are so large that the uncertainties in attribution of responsibility are unacceptably large. The second group of issues arises from the need to choose how the greenhouse effect is defined, i.e. what quantity is used as the indicator of the greenhosue effect, e.g. temperature increase, rate of temperature increase, sea-level rise etc or some combination of these.

Policy choices

Within the general principle of attributing historical responsibility, several choices remain as policy choices. These include: which quantity should be used as an indicator of climate change? how much uncertainty is acceptable?

Institutional

The proposal was not included in the draft negotiating text, essentially because it was felt that the technical apsects required further negotiation. The proposal was referred to the Subsidiary Body of Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) which has convened several meetings of experts to address the science of the proposal.

Studies of the Brazilian Proposal have been continued by an informal working group MATCH (Modelling and Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change) -- http://www.match-info.net.

Official reports

Various official reports of the experts' meetings are available on the FCCC website.

Other scientific studies

Several research organisations have undertaken studies of the proposal, particularly CSIRO (Australia) and RIVM (Netherlands).

CSIRO technical papers: No 38, No 41, No 56, (note that links to RIVM and UNFCCC in these reports are obsolete).
den Elzen et al 1999 den Elzen and Schaeffer, 2000

Some relevant papers in the refereed literature are

Analysing countries' contribution to cliamte change: Scientific and policy-related choices. Environmental Science and Policy. (2005). den Elzen, Fuglesvedt, Hohne, Trudinger, Lowe, Matthews, Romstadt, Pires de Campos, Andranova.
Comparison of formalsims for attributing responsibility for climate change ...., Climatic Change, 68, 67-99 (2005). C Trudinger and I Enting.
Responsibility for past and future global warming: Uncertainties on attributing anthropogenic climate change. Climatic Change, 54, 29-73 (2002). M. den Elzen and M. Schaeffer

Disclaimer

This page, its contents and style, are the responsibility of the author and do not represent the views, policies or opinions of The University of Melbourne.

Ian Enting: last update 8/11/05.