Publications

Back to staff profile

  • J Fielding, SG Sullivan, F Beard, K Macartney, J Williams, A Dawson, GL Gilbert, P Massey, K Crooks, R Moss, J. McCaw, J McVernon. Constructing an ethical framework for priority allocation of pandemic vaccines.. Vaccine, 797-804, 2021. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.12.053.

  • Somya Mehra, J. McCaw, Mark B Flegg, P. Taylor. Antibody Dynamics for Plasmodium vivax Malaria: A Mathematical Model.. Bulletin of mathematical biology, 83, 6 (27pp), 2021. doi: 10.1007/s11538-020-00837-5.

  • Sophie G Zaloumis, J. Whyte, Joel Tarning, Sanjeev Krishna, J. McCaw, P. Cao, Michael T White, Saber Dini, Freya JI Fowkes, Richard J Maude, Peter Kremsner, Arjen Dondorp, Ric N Price, Julie A Simpson. Development and validation of an in silico decision-tool to guide optimisation of intravenous artesunate dosing regimens for severe falciparum malaria patients.. Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy, 65, 2021. doi: 10.1128/AAC.02346-20.

  • Punya Alahakoon, J. McCaw, P. Taylor. Estimation of the probability of epidemic fade-out from multiple outbreak data. 2021. doi: 10.1101/2021.06.01.446666.

  • Freya M Shearer, Robert Moss, Jodie McVernon, Joshua V Ross, J. McCaw. Infectious disease pandemic planning and response: Incorporating decision analysis.. PLoS medicine, 17, e1003018 (12pp), 2020. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003018.

  • Somya Mehra, J. McCaw, Mark B Flegg, P. Taylor. An Activation-Clearance Model for Plasmodium vivax Malaria.. Bulletin of mathematical biology, 82, 32 (21pp), 2020. doi: 10.1007/s11538-020-00706-1.

  • Amani Alahmadi, Sarah Belet, Andrew Black, Deborah Cromer, J. Flegg, Thomas House, Pavithra Jayasundara, Jonathan M Keith, J. McCaw, Robert Moss, Joshua V Ross, Freya M Shearer, Sai Thein Than Tun, James Walker, L. White, J. Whyte, Ada WC Yan, Alexander E Zarebski. Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges.. Epidemics, 32, 100393 (12pp), 2020. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100393.

  • David J Price, Freya M Shearer, Michael T Meehan, Emma McBryde, Robert Moss, Nick Golding, Eamon J Conway, Peter Dawson, Deborah Cromer, James Wood, Sam Abbott, Jodie McVernon, J. McCaw. Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic.. eLife, 9, 1-14, 2020. doi: 10.7554/eLife.58785.

  • Robin N Thompson, T Déirdre Hollingsworth, Valerie Isham, Daniel Arribas-Bel, Ben Ashby, Tom Britton, Peter Challenor, Lauren HK Chappell, Hannah Clapham, Nik J Cunniffe, A Philip Dawid, Christl A Donnelly, Rosalind M Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Nigel Gilbert, Paul Glendinning, Julia R Gog, William S Hart, Hans Heesterbeek, Thomas House, Matt Keeling, István Z Kiss, Mirjam E Kretzschmar, Alun L Lloyd, Emma S McBryde, J. McCaw, Trevelyan J McKinley, Joel C Miller, Martina Morris, Kris V Parag, Carl AB Pearson, Lorenzo Pellis, Juliet RC Pulliam, Joshua V Ross, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Bernard W Silverman, Claudio J Struchiner, Michael J Tildesley, Pieter Trapman, Cerian R Webb, Denis Mollison, Olivier Restif. Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 287, 20201405 (15pp), 2020. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2020.1405.

  • Stephen J Rogerson, James G Beeson, Moses Laman, Jeanne Rini Poespoprodjo, Timothy William, Julie A Simpson, Ric N Price, ACREME Investigators, N Anstey, F Fowkes, J McCarthy, J. McCaw, I Mueller, P Gething. Identifying and combating the impacts of COVID-19 on malaria.. BMC medicine, 18, 239 (7pp), 2020. doi: 10.1186/s12916-020-01710-x.

  • Ke Li, J. McCaw, P. Cao. Modelling within-host macrophage dynamics in influenza virus infection.. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 508, 110492 (10pp), 2020. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110492.

  • M. Lydeamore, Patricia T Campbell, David J Price, Yue Wu, Adrian J Marcato, Will Cuningham, Jonathan R Carapetis, Ross M Andrews, Malcolm I McDonald, Jodie McVernon, Steven YC Tong, J. McCaw. Estimation of the force of infection and infectious period of skin sores in remote Australian communities using interval-censored data.. PLoS Comput Biol, 16, e1007838 (18pp), 2020. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007838.

  • Robert Moss, James Wood, Damien Brown, Freya M Shearer, Andrew J Black, Kathryn Glass, Allen C Cheng, J. McCaw, Jodie McVernon. Coronavirus disease model to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness, Australia. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26, 2844-2853, 2020. doi: 10.3201/eid2612.202530.

  • Robert Moss, Alexander E Zarebski, Sandra J Carlson, J. McCaw. Accounting for Healthcare-Seeking Behaviours and Testing Practices in Real-Time Influenza Forecasts.. Tropical medicine and infectious disease, 4, 12 (19pp), 2019. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed4010012.

  • Ada WC Yan, Sophie G Zaloumis, Julie A Simpson, J. McCaw. Sequential infection experiments for quantifying innate and adaptive immunity during influenza infection. . PLoS computational biology, 15, e1006568 (23pp), 2019. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006568.

  • Robert Moss, Alexander E Zarebski, Peter Dawson, Lucinda J Franklin, Frances A Birrell, J. McCaw. Anatomy of a seasonal influenza epidemic forecast. Communicable diseases intelligence (2018), 43, 2019. doi: 10.33321/cdi.2019.43.7.

  • P. Cao, Katharine A Collins, Sophie Zaloumis, Thanaporn Wattanakul, Joel Tarning, Julie A Simpson, James McCarthy, J. McCaw. Modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in humans during malaria infection.. eLife, 8, e49058 (21pp), 2019. doi: 10.7554/eLife.49058.

  • P. Cao, Katharine Collins, Sophie Zaloumis, Thanaporn Wattanakul, Joel Tarning, Julie Simpson, James McCarthy, J. McCaw. Modelling the population dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in humans during malaria infection. 641472, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2019. doi: 10.1101/641472.

  • R. Hickson, Ricardo Aguas, Angela Devine, J. McCaw, L. White. MODELLING HYPOTHESIZED INTERACTIONS OF PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM AND P. VIVAX. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, 101, 306 (1pp), 2019.

  • Alexander Eugene Zarebski, J. McCaw. Quantitative Epidemiology: A Bayesian Perspective. 2019.

  • Ngo Nam Leung, J. McCaw. Models of infectious disease transmission to explore the effects of immune boosting. 2019.

  • Z. Wang, L. Zhu, T. Nguyen, Yanmin Wan, Sneha Sant, Sergio M Quiñones-Parra, Jeremy Chase Crawford, Auda A Eltahla, Simone Rizzetto, Rowena A Bull, Chenli Qiu, Marios Koutsakos, E Bridie Clemens, Liyen Loh, Tianyue Chen, N. LIU, P. Cao, Yanqin Ren, Lukasz Kedzierski, Tom Kotsimbos, J. McCaw, Nicole L La Gruta, Stephen J Turner, Allen C Cheng, Fabio Luciani, X. Zhang, Peter C Doherty, Paul G Thomas, J. Xu, Katherine Kedzierska. Clonally diverse CD38+HLA-DR+CD8+T cells persist during fatal H7N9 disease.. Nat Commun, 9, 824 (12pp), 2018. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-03243-7.

  • Kok Fei Chan, Louise A Carolan, Daniil Korenkov, Julian Druce, J. McCaw, Patrick C Reading, Ian G Barr, Karen L Laurie. Investigating Viral Interference Between Influenza A Virus and Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus in a Ferret Model of Infection.. J Infect Dis, 406-417, 2018. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiy184.

  • M. Lydeamore, PT Campbell, W Cuningham, RM Andrews, T Kearns, D Clucas, R Gundjirryirr Dhurrkay, J Carapetis, SYC Tong, J. McCaw, J McVernon. Calculation of the age of the first infection for skin sores and scabies in five remote communities in northern Australia.. Epidemiology and infection, 1194-1201, 2018. doi: 10.1017/s0950268818001061.

  • T. Leung, Patricia T Campbell, B. Hughes, F. Frascoli, J. McCaw. Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model. Infectious Disease Modelling, 3, 118-135, 2018. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2018.06.002.

  • A. Yan, AJ Black, J. McCaw, N Rebuli, J. Ross, AJ Swan, R. Hickson. The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities. Mathematical Biosciences, 139-147, 2018. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.07.004.

  • David S Khoury, Rosemary Aogo, Georges Randriafanomezantsoa-Radohery, J. McCaw, Julie A Simpson, James S McCarthy, Ashraful Haque, Deborah Cromer, Miles P Davenport. Within-host modeling of blood-stage malaria. Immunological Reviews, 285, 168-193, 2018. doi: 10.1111/imr.12697.

  • M. Lydeamore, PT Campbell, DG Regan, SYC Tong, RM Andrews, AC Steer, L Romani, JM Kaldor, J McVernon, J. McCaw. A biological model of scabies infection dynamics and treatment informs mass drug administration strategies to increase the likelihood of elimination.. Mathematical biosciences, 163-173, 2018. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.08.007.

  • R Farrukee, AE Zarebski, J. McCaw, JD Bloom, PC Reading, AC Hurt. CHARACTERIZATION OF INFLUENZA B VIRUS VARIANTS WITH REDUCED NEURAMINIDASE INHIBITOR SUSCEPTIBILITY.. Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy, e01081-e01018, 2018. doi: 10.1128/AAC.01081-18.

  • M. Roberts, R. Hickson, J. McCaw, L Talarmain. A simple influenza model with complicated dynamics.. Journal of mathematical biology, 607-624, 2018. doi: 10.1007/s00285-018-1285-z.

  • Tan N Doan, P. Cao, Theophilus I Emeto, J. McCaw, Emma S McBryde. Predicting the Outcomes of New Short-Course Regimens for Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Using Intrahost and Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modelling.. Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy, aac.01487-aac.01418, 2018. doi: 10.1128/AAC.01487-18.

  • S Dini, S Zaloumis, P. Cao, RN Price, FJI Fowkes, RW Van Der Pluijm, J. McCaw, JA Simpson. Investigating the efficacy of triple artemisinin-based combination therapies (TACTs) for treating Plasmodium falciparum malaria patients using mathematical modelling.. Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy, 62, e01068-e01018, 2018. doi: 10.1128/AAC.01068-18.

  • SG Zaloumis, P. Cao, S Dini, MP Davenport, D Cromer, DS Khoury, FJI Fowkes, J. McCaw, JA Simpson. In silico investigation of the decline in clinical efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies due to increasing artemisinin and partner drug resistance.. Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy, 62, aac.01292-aac.01218, 2018. doi: 10.1128/AAC.01292-18.

  • M. Lydeamore, J. McCaw. Mechanistic and statistical models of skin disease transmission. 2018.

  • P. Cao, Nectarios Klonis, Sophie Zaloumis, Con Dogovski, Stanley C Xie, Sompob Saralamba, Lisa J White, Freya JI Fowkes, Leann Tilley, Julie A Simpson, J. McCaw. A Dynamic Stress Model Explains the Delayed Drug Effect in Artemisinin Treatment of Plasmodium falciparum. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, 61, AAC.00618-17 (16pp), 2017. doi: 10.1128/AAC.00618-17.

  • P. Cao, J. McCaw. The Mechanisms for Within-Host Influenza Virus Control Affect Model-Based Assessment and Prediction of Antiviral Treatment. Viruses-Basel, 9, 197 (20pp), 2017. doi: 10.3390/v9080197.

  • P. Cao, Nectarios Klonis, Sophie Zaloumis, David S Khoury, Deborah Cromer, Miles P Davenport, Leann Tilley, Julie A Simpson, J. McCaw. A mechanistic model quantifies artemisinin-induced parasite growth retardation in blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum infection. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 430, 117-127, 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.07.017.

  • DC Pearce, J. McCaw, J McVernon, JD Mathews. Influenza as a trigger for cardiovascular disease: An investigation of serotype, subtype and geographic location. Environmental Research, 156, 688-696, 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.04.024.

  • JP Villanueva-Cabezas, PT Campbell, J. McCaw, PA Durr, J McVernon. Turnover of Village Chickens Undermines Vaccine Coverage to Control HPAI H5N1. Zoonoses and Public Health, 64, 53-62, 2017. doi: 10.1111/zph.12282.

  • R Moss, A Zarebski, P Dawson, J. McCaw. Retrospective forecasting of the 2010-2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systems. Epidemiology and Infection, 145, 156-169, 2017. doi: 10.1017/S0950268816002053.

  • Alexander E Zarebski, Peter Dawson, J. McCaw, Robert Moss. Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting. Infectious Disease Modelling, 2, 56-70, 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2016.12.004.

  • Tuo Yang, Stanley C Xie, P. Cao, Carlo Giannangelo, J. McCaw, Darren J Creek, Susan A Charman, Nectarios Klonis, Leann Tilley. Physiologically Relevant Exposure to Synthetic Ozonoide Antimalarials Kills K13 Wildtype and Mutant Plasmodium Falciparum More Effectively than DIHYDROARTEMISININ. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 95, 78 (1pp), 2017.

  • Andrew J Black, Nicholas Geard, J. McCaw, Jodie McVernon, Joshua V Ross. Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies. Epidemics, 19, 61-73, 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.004.

  • Ada WC Yan, P. Cao, Jane M Heffernan, Jodie McVernon, Kylie M Quinn, Nicole L La Gruta, Karen L Laurie, J. McCaw. Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 413, 34-49, 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.11.008.

  • A. Yan, P. Cao, Jane M Heffernan, Jodie McVernon, Kylie M Quinn, Nicole L La Gruta, Karen L Laurie, J. McCaw. Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host (vol 413, pg 34, 2017). Journal of Theoretical Biology, 419, 394 (1pp), 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.03.015.

  • R. Moss, JE Fielding, LJ Franklin, N Stephens, J Mcvernon, P Dawson, J. McCaw. Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: Interpretation and (re)calibration. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 42, 69-76, 2017. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.12750.

  • Karen McCulloch, J. McCaw, Jodie McVernon, Shannon M Hedtke, Martin Walker, Philip Milton, Maria-Gloria Basanez, Warwick Grant. Investigation into the effect of host migration on the transmission of onchocerca volvulus using a patch model. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 97, 564 (1pp), 2017.

  • Karen L Laurie, William Horman, Louise A Carolan, Kok Fei Chan, Daniel Layton, Andrew Bean, Dhanasekaran Vijaykrishna, Patrick C Reading, J. McCaw, Ian G Barr. Evidence for Viral Interference and Cross-reactive Protective Immunity Between Influenza B Virus Lineages.. J Infect Dis, 217, 548-559, 2017. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jix509.

  • Ada WC Yan, J. McCaw. Influenza viral dynamics models to explore the roles of innate and adaptive immunity. 2017.

  • Tiffany Leung, B. Hughes, Federico Frascoli, Patricia T Campbell, J. McCaw. Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model. 2017.

  • Tiffany Leung, B. Hughes, Federico Frascoli, J. McCaw. Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunity. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 410, 55-64, 2016. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.08.034.

  • J. McCaw. Mathematical modelling for the development, monitoring and evaluation of intervention strategies for infectious diseases.. Pathology, 48 Suppl 1, S53, 2016. doi: 10.1016/j.pathol.2015.12.136.

  • Robert Moss, J. McCaw, Allen C Cheng, Aeron C Hurt, Jodie McVernon. Reducing disease burden in an influenza pandemic by targeted delivery of neuraminidase inhibitors: mathematical models in the Australian context. BMC Infectious Diseases, 16, 552 (13pp), 2016. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1866-7.

  • P. Cao, Zhongfang Wang, Ada WC Yan, Jodie McVernon, Jianqing Xu, Jane M Heffernan, Katherine Kedzierska, J. McCaw. On the Role of CD8(+) T Cells in Determining Recovery Time from Influenza Virus Infection. Frontiers in Immunology, 7, 611 (13pp), 2016. doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2016.00611.

  • Robert Moss, Roslyn I Hickson, Jodie McVernon, J. McCaw, Krishna Hort, Jim Black, John R Madden, Nhi H Tran, Emma S McBryde, Nicholas Geard. Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 10, e0005018 (25pp), 2016. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005018.

  • Ada WC Yan, P. Cao, J. McCaw. On the extinction probability in models of within-host infection: the role of latency and immunity. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 73, 787-813, 2016. doi: 10.1007/s00285-015-0961-5.

  • JA Simpson, J. McCaw, FJ Fowkes. Parasite Strain, Host Immunity, and Circulating Blood Cells with Dead Parasites: Why Predicting Malaria Parasite Clearance Is Not a Simple Task. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, 60, 1172 (1pp), 2016. doi: 10.1128/AAC.02528-15.

  • Robert Moss, Alexander Zarebski, Peter Dawson, J. McCaw. Forecasting influenza outbreak dynamics in Melbourne from Internet search query surveillance data. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 10, 314-323, 2016. doi: 10.1111/irv.12376.

  • Naomi Komadina, Sergio M Quinones-Parra, Katherine Kedzierska, J. McCaw, Anne Kelso, Karin Leder, Jodie McVernon, SM Quiñones-Parra, J McVernon. High Conservation Level of CD8(+) T Cell Immunogenic Regions Within an Unusual H1N2 Human Influenza Variant. Journal of Medical Virology, 88, 1725-1732, 2016. doi: 10.1002/jmv.24516.

  • Tuo Yang, Stanley C Xie, P. Cao, Carlo Giannangelo, J. McCaw, Darren J Creek, Susan A Charman, Nectarios Klonis, Leann Tilley. Comparison of the Exposure Time Dependence of the Activities of Synthetic Ozonide Antimalarials and Dihydroartemisinin against K13 Wild-Type and Mutant Plasmodium falciparum Strains. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, 60, 4501-4510, 2016. doi: 10.1128/AAC.00574-16.

  • Kylie M Quinn, Sophie G Zaloumis, Tania Cukalac, Wan-Ting Kan, Xavier YX Sng, Michiko Mirams, Katherine A Watson, J. McCaw, Peter C Doherty, Paul G Thomas, Andreas Handel, Nicole L La Gruta. Heightened self-reactivity associated with selective survival, but not expansion, of naive virus-specific CD8(+) T cells in aged mice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113, 1333-1338, 2016. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1525167113.

  • K Laurie, T Guarnaccia, L Carolan, W Horman, A. Yan, M Aban, S Petrie, P. Cao, J Heffernan, J McVernon, J Mosse, A Kelso, J. McCaw, I Barr. The time-interval between infections and viral hierarchies are determinants of viral interference following influenza virus infection in a ferret model. European Journal of Immunology, 46, 685-686, 2016.

  • Tiffany Leung, B. Hughes, Federico Frascoli, J. McCaw. Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunity. 2016.

  • P. Cao, Ada WC Yan, Jane M Heffernan, Stephen Petrie, Robert G Moss, Louise A Carolan, Teagan A Guarnaccia, Anne Kelso, Ian G Barr, Jodie McVernon, Karen L Laurie, James M McCaw, J. McCaw. Innate Immunity and the Inter-exposure Interval Determine the Dynamics of Secondary Influenza Virus Infection and Explain Observed Viral Hierarchies. PLoS Computational Biology, 11, e1004334 (28pp), 2015. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004334.

  • Karen L Laurie, Teagan A Guarnaccia, Louise A Carolan, Ada WC Yan, Malet Aban, Stephen Petrie, P. Cao, Jane M Heffernan, Jodie McVernon, Jennifer Mosse, Anne Kelso, James M Mccaw, J. McCaw, Ian G Barr, JM McCaw. Interval Between Infections and Viral Hierarchy Are Determinants of Viral Interference Following Influenza Virus Infection in a Ferret Model. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 212, 1701-1710, 2015. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiv260.

  • David A Rolls, Nicholas L Geard, Deborah J Warr, Paula M Nathan, Garry L Robins, Philippa E Pattison, J. McCaw, Jodie McVernon. Social encounter profiles of greater Melbourne residents, by location - a telephone survey. BMC Infectious Diseases, 15, 494 (11pp), 2015. doi: 10.1186/s12879-015-1237-9.

  • Patricia Therese Campbell, J. McCaw, Peter McIntyre, Jodie McVernon. Defining long-term drivers of pertussis resurgence, and optimal vaccine control strategies. Vaccine, 33, 5794-5800, 2015. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.09.025.

  • Nicholas Geard, Kathryn Glass, J. McCaw, Emma S McBryde, Kevin B Korb, Matt J Keeling, Jodie McVernon. The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population. Epidemics, 13, 56-64, 2015. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.08.002.

  • Hammad Ali, Ewan Cameron, Christopher C Drovandi, J. McCaw, Rebecca J Guy, Melanie Middleton, Carol El-Hayek, Jane S Hocking, John M Kaldor, Basil Donovan, David P Wilson, chlamydia incidence estimation group Australian, D Harman, G Fulford, J Baker, J Urquhart, L Yakob, M. Roberts, R. Hickson, WX Lim, A McDonald, D Regan, Australian chlamydia incidence estimation group. A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence. Sexually Transmitted Infections, 91, 513-519, 2015. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2014-051631.

  • E. Thomas, J. McCaw, HA Kelly, KA Grant, J McVernon. Quantifying differences in the epidemic curves from three influenza surveillance systems: a nonlinear regression analysis. Epidemiology and Infection, 143, 427-439, 2015. doi: 10.1017/S0950268814000764.

  • Patricia T Campbell, J. McCaw, Jodie McVernon. Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy. Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 11, 669-678, 2015. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2015.1011575.

  • Kirsty J Bolton, J. McCaw, Lorena Brown, David Jackson, Katherine Kedzierska, Jodie McVernon. Prior Population Immunity Reduces the Expected Impact of CTL-Inducing Vaccines for Pandemic Influenza Control. PLoS One, 10, e0120138 (24pp), 2015. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0120138.

  • Con Dogovski, Stanley C Xie, Gaetan Burgio, Jess Bridgford, Sachel Mok, J. McCaw, Kesinee Chotivanich, Shannon Kenny, Nina Gnaedig, Judith Straimer, Zbynek Bozdech, David A Fidock, Julie A Simpson, Arjen M Dondorp, Simon Foote, Nectarios Klonis, Leann Tilley, N Gnädig. Targeting the Cell Stress Response of Plasmodium falciparum to Overcome Artemisinin Resistance. PLoS Biology, 13, e1002132 (26pp), 2015. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1002132.

  • Stephen M Petrie, Jeff Butler, Ian G Barr, Jodie McVernon, Aeron C Hurt, J. McCaw. Quantifying relative within-host replication fitness in influenza virus competition experiments. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 382, 259-271, 2015. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.07.003.

  • Chelsea R Brown, J. McCaw, Emily J Fairmaid, Karin Leder, Martha Sinclair, Jodie McVernon. Factors associated with transmission of influenza-like illness in a cohort of households containing multiple children. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 9, 247-254, 2015. doi: 10.1111/irv.12331.

  • J. McCaw, K Glass, G Mercer, J McVernon. Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics. Journal of Public Health, 36, 5-12, 2014. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdt058.

  • J Butler, K Hooper, S Petrie, R Lee, S Maurer-Stroh, L Reh, T Guarnaccia, C Baas, L Xue, S Vitesnik, S Leang, J McVernon, A Kelso, I Barr, J. McCaw, J Bloom, A Hurt. Estimating the Fitness Advantage Conferred by Permissive Neuraminidase Mutations in Recent Oseltamivir-Resistant A(H1N1) pdm09 Influenza Viruses. PLoS Pathogens, 10, e1004065 (13pp), 2014. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1004065.

  • Ding Yuan Oh, Sue Lowther, J. McCaw, Sheena G Sullivan, Sook-Kwan Leang, Jessica Haining, Rachel Arkinstall, Anne Kelso, Jodie Mcvernon, Ian G Barr, Deborah Middleton, Aeron C Hurt. Evaluation of oseltamivir prophylaxis regimens for reducing influenza virus infection, transmission and disease severity in a ferret model of household contact. Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, 69, 2458-2469, 2014. doi: 10.1093/jac/dku146.

  • Julie A Simpson, S. Zaloumis, Alysha M DeLivera, Ric N Price, J. McCaw, A. de Livera. Making the Most of Clinical Data: Reviewing the Role of Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Models of Anti-malarial Drugs. AAPS Journal, 16, 962-974, 2014. doi: 10.1208/s12248-014-9647-y.

  • KJ Bolton, J. McCaw, J McVernon, JD Mathews. The influence of changing host immunity on 1918-19 pandemic dynamics. Epidemics, 8, 18-27, 2014. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.07.004.

  • Mathew P Dafilis, F. Frascoli, Jodie McVernon, Jane M Heffernan, J. McCaw. The dynamical consequences of seasonal forcing, immune boosting and demographic change in a model of disease transmission. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 361, 124-132, 2014. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.07.028.

  • Mathew P Dafilis, F. Frascoli, Jodie McVernon, Jane M Heffernan, J. McCaw. Dynamical crises, multistability and the influence of the duration of immunity in a seasonally-forced model of disease transmission. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 11, 43 (10pp), 2014. doi: 10.1186/1742-4682-11-43.

  • S. Zaloumis, J Tarning, S Krishna, RN Price, NJ White, TME Davis, J. McCaw, P Olliaro, RJ Maude, P Kremsner, A Dondorp, M Gomes, K Barnes, JA Simpson. Population pharmacokinetics of intravenous artesunate: A pooled analysis of individual data from patients with severe malaria. CPT: Pharmacometrics and Systems Pharmacology, 3, e145-145, 2014. doi: 10.1038/psp.2014.43.

  • Stephen Michael Petrie, J. McCaw. Analysing competition between co-infecting influenza viruses using within-host models. 2014.

  • N Klonis, C Xie, J. McCaw, MD Crespo-Ortiz, S. Zaloumis, JA Simpson, L Tilley, Stanley C Xie. Altered temporal response of malaria parasites determines differential sensitivity to artemisinin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110, 5157-5162, 2013. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1217452110.

  • PF Howard, J. McCaw, C Richmond, Nissen, Sloots, C Lambert, Lai, Greenberg, TM Nolan, J McVernon. Virus detection and its association with symptoms during influenza-like illness in a sample of healthy adults enrolled in a randomised controlled vaccine trial. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 7, 330-339, 2013. doi: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00395.x.

  • S Petrie, Guarnaccia, L Laurie, C Hurt, J McVernon, J. McCaw. Reducing Uncertainty in Within-Host Parameter Estimates of Influenza Infection by Measuring Both Infectious and Total Viral Load. PLoS One, 8, e64098 (12pp), 2013. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0064098.

  • T Guarnaccia, LA Carolan, S Maurer-Stroh, RTC Lee, ER Job, PC Reading, SM Petrie, J. McCaw, J McVernon, AC Hurt, A Kelso, J Mosse, IG Barr, KL Laurie. Antigenic Drift of the Pandemic 2009 A(H1N1) Influenza Virus in a Ferret Model. PLoS Pathogens, 9, e1003354 (18pp), 2013. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1003354.

  • N Geard, J. McCaw, A Dorin, KB Korb, J McVernon. Synthetic Population Dynamics: A Model of Household Demography. Journal of Artifical Societies and Social Simulation, 16, 2013. doi: 10.18564/jasss.2098.

  • T Mota, J Murray, RJ Center, DF Purcell, J. McCaw. Application of a case-control study design to investigate genotypic signatures of HIV-1 transmission. Retrovirology, 9, 54 (12pp), 2012. doi: 10.1186/1742-4690-9-54.

  • KJ Bolton, J. McCaw, K Forbes, P Nathan, G Robins, PE Pattison, T Nolan, J McVernon. Influence of contact definitions in assessment of the relative importance of social settings in disease transmission risk. PLoS One, 7, e30893 (8pp), 2012. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030893.

  • J. McCaw, PF Howard, PC Richmond, M Nissen, T Sloots, SB Lambert, M Lai, M Greenberg, T Nolan, J McVernon. Household transmission of respiratory viruses – assessment of viral, individual and household characteristics in a population study of healthy Australian adults. BMC Infectious Diseases, 12, 345 (10pp), 2012. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-12-345.

  • G Verikios, J. McCaw, J McVernon, AH Harris. H1N1 influenza and the Australian macroeconomy. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 17, 22-51, 2012. doi: 10.1080/13547860.2012.639999.

  • S. Zaloumis, Humberstone, A Charman, N Price, J Moehrle, Gamo-Benito, J. McCaw, KM Jamsen, K Smith, JA Simpson. Assessing the utility of an anti-malarial pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for aiding drug clinical development. Malaria Journal, 11, 303 (14pp), 2012. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-11-303.

  • KJ Bolton, J. McCaw, R. Moss, RS Morris, Wang, A Burma, B Darma, D Narangerel, P Nymadawa, J McVernon. Likely effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating influenza virus transmission in Mongolia. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 90, 264-271, 2012. doi: 10.2471/BLT.11.093419.

  • MP Dafilis, R. Moss, J McVernon, J. McCaw. Drivers and consequences of influenza antiviral resistant-strain emergence in a capacity-constrained pandemic response. Epidemics, 4, 219-226, 2012. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2012.12.002.

  • MP Dafilis, F. Frascoli, JG Wood, J. McCaw. The Influence of Increasing Life Expectancy on the Dynamics of SIRS Systems with Immune Boosting. The ANZIAM Journal, 54, 50-63, 2012. doi: 10.1017/S1446181113000023.

  • D Pearce, PK Pallaghy, J. McCaw, J McVernon, JD Mathews. Understanding mortality in the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 5, 89-98, 2011. doi: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2010.00186.x.

  • R. Moss, J. McCaw, J McVernon. Diagnosis and Antiviral Intervention Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Epidemic. PLoS One, 6, e14505 (10pp), 2011. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0014505.

  • J. McCaw, N Arinaminpathy, A Hurt, J McVernon, A McLean. A Mathematical Framework for Estimating Pathogen Transmission Fitness and Inoculum Size Using Data from a Competitive Mixtures Animal Model. PLoS Computational Biology, 7, e1002026 (11pp), 2011. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002026.

  • K Glass, J. McCaw, J McVernon. Incorporating population dynamics into household models of infectious disease transmission. Epidemics, 3, 152-158, 2011. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.05.001.

  • AC Hurt, J. McCaw, HR Fryer, J Mosse, AR McLean, IG Barr. Assessing the Viral Fitness of Oseltamivir-Resistant Influenza Viruses in Ferrets, Using a Competitive-Mixtures Model. Journal of Virology, 84, 9427-9438, 2010. doi: 10.1128/JVI.00373-10.

  • J. McCaw, K Forbes, P Nathan, P Pattison, G Robins, T Nolan, J McVernon. Comparison of three methods for ascertainment of contact information relevant to respiratory pathogen transmission in encounter networks. BMC Infectious Diseases, 10, 166 (11pp), 2010. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-10-166.

  • J Matthews, ES McBryde, J McVernon, P Pallaghy, J. McCaw. Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918-9. BMC Infectious Diseases, 10, 128 (9pp), 2010. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-10-128.

  • J McVernon, J. McCaw, T Nolan. Modelling strategic use of the national antiviral stockpile during the CONTAIN and SUSTAIN phases of an Australian pandemic influenza response. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 34, 113-119, 2010. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2010.00493.x.

  • J Matthews, DC Pearce, KJ Bolton, J McVernon, J. McCaw. Proof of principle for an immunological model to explain mortality variations over the three waves of the 1918–1919 pandemic. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 5, 219-222, 2010.

  • KJ Bolton, J. McCaw, J McVernon, J Matthews. Exploring alternate immune hypotheses in dynamical models of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 5, 208-211, 2010.

  • J. McCaw, R. Moss, J McVernon. A decision support tool for evaluating the impact of a diagnostic-capacity and antiviral-delivery constrained intervention strategy on an influenza pandemic. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 5, 212-215, 2010.

  • J Wood, J. McCaw, N Becker, T Nolan, CR MacIntyre. Optimal Dosing and Dynamic Distribution of Vaccines in an Influenza Pandemic. American Journal of Epidemiology, 169, 1517-1524, 2009. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwp072.

  • J. McCaw, J McVernon, E McBryde, J Matthews. Influenza: Accounting for Prior Immunity. Science, 325, 1071 (1pp), 2009. doi: 10.1126/science.325_1071a.

  • J Matthews, J Chesson, J. McCaw, J McVernon. Understanding influenza transmission, immunity and pandemic threats. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 3, 143-149, 2009. doi: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00089.x.

  • J. McCaw, JG Wood, E McBryde, T Nolan, J. Wu, M Lipsitch, J McVernon. Understanding Australia’s influenza pandemic policy on the strategic use of the antiviral drug stockpile. Medical Journal of Australia, 191, 136-137, 2009.

  • J. McCaw, JG Wood, J McVernon. Impact of Emerging Antiviral Drug Resistance on Influenza Containment and Spread: Influence of Subclinical Infection and Strategic Use of a Stockpile Containing One or Two Drugs. PLoS One, 3, e2362 (10pp), 2008. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0002362.

  • JG Wood, J. McCaw, N Becker, T Nolan, CR MacIntyre. A Mathematical Model to Determine Optimal Dosing and Dynamic Distribution of Pandemic Influenza Vaccines. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 12, E330 (1pp), 2008. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2008.05.883.

  • J Matthews, CT McCaw, J McVernon, E McBryde, J. McCaw. A Biological Model for Influenza Transmission: Pandemic Planning Implications of Asymptomatic Infection and Immunity. PLoS One, 2, 1-6, 2007. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0001220.

  • J. McCaw, J McVernon. Prophylaxis or treatment? Optimal use of an antiviral stockpile during an influenza pandemic. Mathematical Biosciences, 209, 336-360, 2007. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2007.02.003.

  • J. McCaw, BHJ McKeller. Pure point spectrum for the time evolution of a periodically rank-N kicked Hamiltonian. Journal of Mathematical Physics, 46, 032108 (24pp), 2005. doi: 10.1063/1.1841482.

  • J. McCaw, B McKellar. On the continuous spectral component of the Floquet operator for a periodically kicked quantum system. Journal of Mathematical Physics, 46, 103503 (16pp), 2005. doi: 10.1063/1.2035027.

  • J. McCaw. Quantum Chaos: Spectral Analysis of Floquet Operators. The University of Melbourne, 2005.